In 25 years time, Nigeria, India and China are expected to emerge world’s prime top energy demand economies, based on their respective phenomenal population growth trend, a report by ExxonMobil has disclosed.
The oil giant also hinted that supply glut of crude oil to the global market would continue into the foreseeable future, as supply would continue to outstrip demand in many countries.
Despite data showing that global reserves have risen to six trillion barrels, ExxonMobil said this would last for only a 100 years, based on the prevailing energy consumption and projected possible future demands.
Speaking on the report tagged, ‘2015 Energy Outlook series’ in Abuja, the ExxonMobil General Manager, Deep Water Operations, Oladotun Isiaka, said the energy demand level would continue to rise, driven largely by population increase, improved standard of living and growth in the middle class, especially in India, China and other key growth areas of the world.
Isiaka added: “Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different trajectories in terms of key demand drivers including population, demographics, economic growth and income levels.”
Going memory lane on the global oil reserve, he explained: “In 1981 it was estimated to be below 2 trillion barrels, then slightly above two trillion barrels by 1990, and as of 2013 it was estimated to be six trillion barrels. The key thing that is causing the reserve to rise is, it is not that the oil just got deposited there, the oil has been there for millions of years, but it is that the advancement in technology has now availed us the opportunity to know it is there and to be able to bring it to the tank.
“Ultimately what you want is for the oil to go to the tank and if you do not have the capacity to bring to the tank then it is going to stay there forever. So based on this, if convert this into the amount of energy that we use as of today and what we are projecting to be used in the next 25 years, this tell us that we have a hundred years of oil to support energy use in the future.
“We are seeing now that supply is outstripping demand that is because of the additional oil sands mainly from Canada and the tight oil from North America. The data is the same for 2030 and 2040 and the key thing is on the world basis we see supply outstripping demand.”
Although, supply of oil outstrips demand in Africa, he noted that as standard of living improves, the more the supply would be retained on the continent, adding that the supply that will have to go out will reduce as development indices improve.